How To Call 2 Math Methods On The Same Line Testing Your Baccarat and Craps System

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Testing Your Baccarat and Craps System

Any Baccarat or Craps system must consist of two parts: a bet selection method and a money management system.

Bet selection is defined as the process of selecting the winning decision (player or banker) in baccarat or (pass or fail) in craps. There are many methods preferred by experienced players. Some like to follow the shoe in baccarat or the roll in craps. By this we mean that the player bets the same as the previous decision. Another favorite method of choosing which side to bet on is the penultimate decision. Pattern recognition appeals to many players as they search for compelling patterns. The streak game has adapted many systems to the game of baccarat.

Baccarat seems to hold the most hope for the mathematically inclined. Since the game is played with a shoe that is generally not rearranged until a game of baccarat has been concluded. Mathematical types declare that there is dependence in the game of baccarat. Dependency means that as the first half of the baccarat shoe is played, you need to determine the composition of the second half of the baccarat shoe. Therefore, we should be able to develop a bit of an advantage over the house in the second half of the shoe, since we already know what cards have been played in the first half of the shoe (of course, we should make a tracking somehow to find out) . Card counting was pioneered and successfully used in blackjack and baccarat. The result was somewhat positive but very disappointing as the player advantage was very very slight. My advice on counting baccarat cards; don’t waste your time, it won’t work.

Other methods have been explored to extract the “addiction” from the game of baccarat.

Dr. SH Johnson conducted extensive computer research using large volumes of live baccarat data. He studied thousands of recurring patterns in relation to the dominance of the shoe (banker or player) at the time the pattern occurred. He was able to extract an edge only slightly less than that created by card counting in blackjack. Dr. Johnson reports that the practical limitation of this baccarat strategy is the very infrequent occurrence of betting opportunities. This strained the casino’s patience as he put two-thirds of a shoe before putting his high stakes. The game required very large bets and a large amount of money to generate a modest profit. The good doctor concluded that the strategy was more of a moral victory than a practical solution to gaining the upper hand in the game of baccarat.

Some players take a unique approach based on the continuity of numbers in a game of negative expectations such as baccarat or craps. The number continuity concept behind this approach is demonstrated every time we analyze the data on the main frame computer. This does not mean that the concept will provide you with the foolproof game system. Here’s the basic idea. Let’s say we went to the casino with a group of researchers and recorded every roll of the dice on the dice table 24/7 for 6 months. This would involve thousands of dice rolls. Just for the sake of argument, let’s say 6 months of continuous recording represents 650,000 rolls or decisions. Now, let’s say that an individual researcher lives to be 102 years old and for 80 years of his life he went to the casino every day of his life. Each day he recorded 10 minutes of dice rolls on the dice table (not even on the same table every day!). Let’s say, for our little discussion, that the 80 years of 10 minutes a day produced the same amount of decisions, the same 650,000 that the 24/7 research group made in 6 months.

Let’s take both sets of data and enter into our computer. The computer will analyze the data with the game’s mathematical model. We will analyze the distribution of patterns, the occurrence of numbers and all percentages. We will calculate the casino’s advantage over the player (ie pass line 1.42%, don’t pass 1.40%, etc.). The computer spins for a few minutes and spits out the two reports; Report 1: the “24-hour data for 6 months” and Report 2: the “10-minute data per day for 80 years”. What do you think the difference will be? NOTHING!! That’s right, the stats and numbers will be the same.

Well, what can we learn from this? As players, we only play one big game of dice and one big game of baccarat (if those are your games) in our lives. You form a continuum of numbers that throughout the life of your game will always try to conform to the game’s morphology or mathematical distribution. At any given time, various aspects (patterns and numbers) will deviate from their normal mathematical distribution in the game. For example, let’s say that in our lifetime playing we have played 1,000,000 hands of baccarat. We know this because we recorded all those silly things on chips and entered them into our computer after every game session. [the pros call this procedure “cataloging their game”]

Each night after entering his data, the player fires up his trusty computer analysis program. A report is derived; he finds, for example, that the patterns of seven banking decisions in a row are 6 standard deviations behind the occurrence in “his game”. The professional player has a coveted strategy for playing off the deviations from his game. He knows that the deviation will return to the team partition eventually. It ALWAYS IS, in the end! Don’t run to the casino just yet. The big question is how long will the pattern be absent before it begins to return to the normal distribution pattern of the game?

NO, I won’t give you the answer. Something to think about, huh? It is interesting, the player does not consider a game as a baccarat shoe or two hours of playing dice but the whole continuity of all the decisions he has played. FACT: This is HIS game; the only game you can ever play. One might say, this triggers the thought we often hear… “maybe my system won’t win in the long run, but I’ll only be playing for a couple of hours a day, so it doesn’t matter.” In these negative expectation casino games, you can’t escape the continuity of numbers with ever-increasing exposure to the game. Billion dollar casinos are built every year on the impregnable morphology of these negative expectation games (reserving the dependency argument in baccarat and this strategy you can develop!)

We suggest that you start designing and testing your baccarat or craps system by focusing on your bet selection methodology. By this I mean, while testing your strategy, use a flat bet or neutral money management. A flat bet means that the bet is the same amount on each baccarat hand or roll of the dice. You can’t beat a negative expectations game with money management. In the long run, your betting selection should produce more winning hands or rolls than losing ones. When the player achieves this, we say that he has a positive expectation or a player advantage over the casino. When the player has the advantage almost any kind of money management will work. However, we repeat it again, if there is no player advantage in bet selection, no money management system, no matter how clever, will turn a negative expectation into a positive expectation.

Can we play even if we don’t have a positive lead? YES! It’s called gambling. When you have a player advantage, it’s not really a game of chance, is it? Most recreational players play without a player advantage. The system you play with and the way you manage your money are critical if you want to have some nice winning sessions and not lose all your money every time you go to the casino. In fact, you could be a lifetime winner without a player edge if you go to the casino table, have an amazing streak of luck (yes it happens) push (progress) your bets to the max. When you’re $35,000 up front, you quit and never play again! Congratulations, you just kicked the casino! That won’t happen with most of us. We’ll be coming back! We better develop a system that is edged or close and have a money management system that limits our exposure to only a small percentage of our budget.

Most professional players use a money percentage management system. These systems are based on extreme discipline and constant monitoring of your liquidity. Only a predetermined percentage of each changing bankroll is wagered. Learn the game you play, learn the system you play, and then learn discipline, then learn discipline, then learn discipline…yes, it’s that important. If you can’t learn to control your emotions, you will self-destruct at the gaming table. If you can’t control your impulses and emotions, don’t waste your time with the game. You are embarking on a great challenge. Like anything else worth doing, you have to pay your dues. Then and only then can you become one of the few real winners! Enjoy!

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