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Sports Gambling Tips – Making Money From Betting
I’m the sports editor for a sports news and betting website. I have many years of experience in gambling, sports journalism and studying mathematics. Am I a gambling expert? Well, I guess you could say that.
There are countless betting experts willing to distribute information from their systems to “beat the bookie” or to earn a second income from betting, for a price, of course. I won’t do that. I will simply give you information about bookmakers, odds and bets for you to use (or forget) as you see fit.
The first thing to mention is that the vast majority of people who engage in gambling will be net losers over time. This is the reason why there are so many bookmakers making so much money all over the world.
Although bookies can sometimes make big hits, for example if a favorite wins the Grand National, they spread their risk so widely and create markets that incorporate a margin, so they will always make a profit in the medium to long term , if not. the short term. That is, as long as they got their sums right.
When setting their odds for a particular event, bookmakers must first assess the likelihood of that event occurring. To do this we have several statistical models based on data collected over years, sometimes decades, about the sport and the team/competitor in question. Of course, if the sport were 100% predictable, it would soon lose its appeal, and while bookmakers usually correctly assess the probability of an event, they are sometimes way off the mark, simply because a match or a competition occur. against conventional wisdom and statistical probability.
Just look at any sport and you’ll find an occasion where the underdog triumphs against the odds, literally. Wimbledon beating then-powerful Liverpool in the 1988 FA Cup final, for example, or the United States beating then-powerful USSR in ice hockey at the 1980 Olympics are two examples of when you should have good odds for the underdogs. And I could have won a decent wedge.
The big bookmakers spend a lot of time and money making sure they have the right odds that ensure they take into account the perceived likelihood of the event and then add that little something extra that gives them the profit margin. So if an event has a probability of, say, 1/3, the odds reflecting that probability would be 2/1. That is, two to one against this event.
However, a bookie setting these odds would, over time, break even (assuming their statistics are correct). So, instead, they would set the odds at, say, 6/4. In this way they have built a margin that ensures, over time, that they will benefit from the people who bet on this selection. It is the same concept as a casino roulette.
So how can you spot the occasions when the bookies have got it wrong? Well, that’s easier said than done, but far from impossible.
One way is to get really good at mathematical modeling and set up a model that takes into account as many variables that affect the outcome of an event as possible. The problem with this tactic is that no matter how complex the model is, and no matter how global it appears, it can never take into account the minutiae of the variables related to the individual mental states of humans. Whether a golfer manages to hit a winning five-foot putt on the 18th at St Andrews depends as much on their concentration as it does on the weather or day of the week. Also, the math can start to get pretty complicated.
Alternatively, you can find yourself a sports niche. Bookmakers will concentrate their resources on the events that make them the most money, which are generally football (soccer), American football and horse racing. So trying to beat the bookies while betting on a Manchester United-Chelsea match will be difficult. Unless you work for one of the clubs, or are married to one of the players or managers, chances are the bookie setting the odds has more information than you do.
However, if you are betting on non-league football, badminton or crown green bowls, it is possible that through hard work reading lots of statistics and gathering general information, you can start to gain an advantage over the betting (if even and even set probabilities for these things, which many do).
And what do you do when you have the information advantage? You follow the value.
Value bets are bets that support a selection with a higher probability than the actual probability of an event occurring. So for example, if you rate the odds of a non-league football team (Grimsby Town for example) winning their next football match as 1/3 or 33% and find a bookmaker that has set the odds at 3/1. , you have a value bet on your hands. The reason is that odds of 3/1 (excluding the margin built into the bet) suggest a 1/4 or 25% chance. The bookie, in your now learned opinion, has undervalued Grimsby’s chances, so you’ve created an 8% margin for yourself.
Of course, Grimsby (as is often the case) may clear their lines and not win the game, and so you could lose the bet. But if you keep looking and betting on value bets, you’ll reap profits over time. If you don’t, over time, you will lose. Simple.
So the question is, do you have the time and desire to spend hours researching and perfecting your sports niches and/or looking for value bets? If the answer is yes, then go for it. If the answer is no, fear not. At http://www.freebetsfreetips.com/ we regularly offer free betting tips along with the best odds for various sporting events to help you make your sports selections and provide you with news, match previews and all the best bets free offers to help you get the best value bets.
Or of course you can marry a football player!
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