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Exposing the Soccer Betting ‘Dead Cert’ Myth

If you’re a soccer fan, you’ve no doubt checked out the multitude of online soccer betting websites to see what services are out there. Frankly, it’s hard to avoid misleading terms like “sure bet,” “banker,” “dead cert,” or “guaranteed winner.” Many tipsters include these terms in the URL of their sites in the hope of increasing the number of registrations. As a punter and reporter, this frustrates me enormously. Without opening the cans of worms that are the laws of mathematics and statistics, the simple indisputable fact is that there is no guaranteed outcome in football or sports. If a certain deadlock existed, there would be no bookmaker in business to hedge our bets. Sometimes I read introductory paragraphs that insist that the professional tipster has a unique secret method for picking guaranteed winners. I think it should be illegal to make such misleading claims.

With over 20 years of trials and tribulations as a football or ‘soccer’ player, I can categorically tell you that the whole notion of a dead certificate is not only false, but a contradiction in itself. If the outcome of a particular football match were a guarantee, surely there would be no need for the teams to fight for ninety minutes. Also, bookmakers would be clinically insane to cover bets on a game whose outcome was a certainty. I realize I may be being facetious in my last few sentences, but it’s scary how many reasonably intelligent people will believe anything a so-called “expert” has written.

When I first started offering advice to the public through my website, I included a “Bankers Section” each week. Now, the point of this section was to suggest that after doing hours of research and analysis on various games, I really couldn’t see any other outcome than, say, a home win. If a game in the bankers section had a shocking result, I would suffer as a tipster as well as a bettor. Sure enough, it made my tipping skills look incompetent to some of my members, not to mention I would have had a major bet on the game as well. Two games still stick in my mind and bring back uncomfortable memories.

10 April 2010 Scottish Cup: Glasgow Celtic 0 – 2 Ross County.

Premier League giants Celtic were unceremoniously kicked out of the cup by First Division Ross County, completing one of the biggest upsets in Scottish football history. Many football accumulators or multiple bets were later broken in disgust by outraged punters.

21 February 2010, Dutch League: PSV Eindhoven 1 – 1 Sparta Rotterdam.

This game had been priced as low as 1.09 by the bookies for a home win, such was the ‘certainty’ of the result. PSV had won eleven League games in a row in Eindhoven and were facing a Sparta who had already lost twelve away games that season and were also relegated. To add insult to injury, Sparta scored the equalizer three minutes into stoppage time.

Huge upset results like these obviously ruin accumulator bets, but more significantly they highlight the fact that you can never be sure of the outcome of a football bet.

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