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## Finding Good Horse Racing Bets With Simple Math and Practice

To most people, narrowing horse races and finding winners seems to be a mystery. They understand the basics of handicapping and can read the show, but when the race is over, they still don’t understand how some people picked the winner. It seems to be more a matter of luck than anything else. So many people give up on the handicap and just start playing the lucky numbers, or worse than that, give up on horse racing and buy lottery tickets or a roll of quarters for the slots.

It’s not that hard to figure out if a horse is a good bet and that’s the key to making a profit. That’s the whole game in a nutshell: finding a good bet. It’s not always a matter of knowing which horse will win because, frankly, no one knows or can say for sure. There are no lead tapes in horse racing.

If you want to make a profit, you’re going to have to work hard, and like I said before, there are no lead pipe tapes, so nothing is guaranteed. You can still lose even if you do everything right. That’s life. On the other hand, your chances of making money betting on horse racing are better if you understand these fundamental numbers and how to apply them.

First, as you search for a winner, let me ask you this: “What does a winner look like?” It’s not a trick question. I know it had a head, tail and leg in each corner, but how does it look on paper?

If you save your old race programs, and I hope you do, you should be able to look back through them and see which horses won and what they had in common for each distance, race type and surface they ran on . For example, how many were in the top three for speed in the last race in a 6 furlong sprint for older horses? If you don’t know how can you handicap a race and use speed figures effectively?

If you know this and all the other statistics that go with racing, you can tell what the chances are of a particular horse winning. I call it the probability number, but you can call it whatever you want. Once you have a few probability numbers for the horses in a race, you can figure out how likely each one is to win. So you will know what a winner should be like. The higher the probability, the higher the odds of winning. The more horses in the race, the harder it is to win. So a short field and a high-probability number should equal a low-priced favorite, but if you know the odds, you can compare the chances of winning against the current odds.

For example, consider that a horse has a one in three chance of winning a race based on speed, class, recent form and jockey. The horse is 2-1. Is it a good bet? It will pay $3 for every dollar bet, but these horses only win once in three races, so you get $3 for every 3 you bet. In other words, it’s a break-even bet, and no one has ever gotten rich on these. In fact, in the long run, you won’t even make enough to buy a hot dog.

This simple equation, probability versus odds, is how you can tell if a horse is a good bet. It’s devilishly simple, although knowing the probability numbers requires research and that means gathering these facts from old programs or online result files. This is where practice comes into play.

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